Window Treatments
When I
first started this column, I concentrated more on the
"gambling", betting aspect on my article. I seemed
to have shifted more toward opinion. I have not been
"pulling the trigger" when I should have. No real
reason, I guess. With my background and connections, I will
try to share some picks and thoughts with you in the future.
In the past few months, I have predicted the outcome
correctly on many events, but of course I had no money to
wage on it. And of course it came through. It always seems
to, right? Well, this week, I'm putting a big bet in. And I
feel pretty good about it.
Now before you call your "man", hear me out. We
all know sports wagering is a gamble. There is no
"locks", rather only probability and chance. I
believe in making a few "big" bets, rather than
"grind it out". Meaning making smaller, daily
bets. I feel that probability will catch up with you,
quicker. Some guys, who bet everyday, lose. This is not to
say that you will never lose when you "pick your
spots", rather you have a better chance in the long
run. That's just me though. I see something I like, and I go
for it.
This is not to mean that I put the mortgage, car payment,
savings/checking accounts or maxing out the credit cards on
my wagers. I don't bet with money to which I don't have,
rather I bet with what I can afford to lose. I don't bet
"scared", as scared money is lost money.
Discipline and self-control are the key's here. You must
also make it clear in your head that once you bet, that
money is gone. If you win, it’s a plus.
Luck does play a factor, no doubt. But doing your homework
helps. We have all been either burned by the half point, bad
call, last second basket, pick or field goal. Getting "backdoored"
or our "team", sits on the ball, or plays not to
lose (which means not playing to win). I have stories as you
do. But let's not forget about our wins, when the ball
bounced our way, because it happens.
Even the pros only win about 60 percent of their games. So
an average Joe like you or I would probably be closer to 50
percent. Don't believe in "hacks" saying they are
over 80 percent. This is not true, or even possible. Not
over the long haul. If anything this may be for a day or
two, if that. It's all about consistency. Again, I don't
like to bet every day, rather I pick my spots. But that's
me. You have to decide what you want to do. Just remember
that the more you bet, the more you will probably lose.
Boxing is a tricky proposition to bet on. The odds are
horrible (laying 3-5 dollars to win 1, or worse yet betting
to win by decision or knockout when ANYTHING can happen just
because you get slightly better odds). Look for value. This
doesn't mean betting every underdog, but like other sports,
does that "puppy" have a chance to win? Bet with
your head, not your heart. There is subjective judging, so
always keep that in mind. I have been burned with a
"bad" decision or two, but I have also
"stole" a fight or two.
Buyer beware, is all I can say. Horseracing is another tough
game. The odds can be better than your usual 11/10, but you
really have to know your jockeys, owners, trainers,
track/turf conditions, breeding, medication and many other
factors. I know alot of people who are "pony"
players, but are terrible handicappers. Be wary of the guy
who has been playing horses since he was a kid. The problem
lies in the fact there are 100's of races daily. You must
have discipline. You can't bet every race. You must pick
your spots or horses. The only good thing about horse
betting, is that you can bet $1 and win $100-$1000. You
won't get those kinds of odds with the Cincinnati Bengals
winning the Superbowl. You would have to bet a 6-10 team
parlay for odds like that. Just be careful. And stay away
from harness racing!
When laying or taking points, think like this. If you are
getting points, can your team win the game outright? If not,
rethink your bet. Betting on bad teams that are getting a
ton of points, is stupid. There is a reason they are getting
those points. They are a bad team! I love taking points, but
I only do so when I can answer those questions. I am not a
chalk player by any means. I don't like laying 2 touchdowns,
no matter whom I am playing. Also keep in mind that these
players don't care if they win by 1 point or 40. Be careful
betting on college sports. The kid's don't always go all
out, as you might think they do. Running up scores isn't as
important as it once was with the complicated BCS. Think
what you are doing. Don't bet on a team because you attended
college there or because you hate them. Be smart!
One last thought. ALWAYS bet against the public! You will
win more. Remember Vegas wasn't built on losers. I would
rather be on the side of the book than the public. If I am
with the public, I will reconsider my bet, or not bet at
all. It's that crucial to me. The public can ruin a good
thing, no doubt. Of course they will be right. But they will
be more wrong, so take this into consideration. If you see a
drastic line movement, take a look at the other side. The
public are suckers for "chalk" or favorites. It's
all about value. Look at "public" teams. Teams
that are familiar to them. They are usually overpriced or
overvalued. You may get an extra point or two, which is
crucial in football.
Also keep in mind that streaks occur. I remember going 11-0
in hoops one yr, before finishing 14-3. But I also remember
going 0-11, when I couldn't pick a game to save my life.
Again notice the theme here. Everything equals out at the
end. NO ONE will win all their bets or lose them. It just
seems that way.
Las Vegas wasn't built on winners. Look around. Those
monuments and buildings are built with your money. My friend
even has a whole floor dedicated to himself at the Mirage,
thanks to his losing bets! While sports betting is better
than slots, some table games, and you have "longer
action”, it is still a gamble. Do not forget that. We can
overanalyze ("study long, study wrong") or just
talk ourselves out of a play. I sometimes go on
"hunches", gut instincts or just a
"feeling". I sometimes can't explain it, rather
saying, "I knew that would happen, don't know how or
why, but it just felt right". Then on the other hand, I
have handicapped to the end, but lost anyways.
ALWAYS bet on YOUR games. Meaning advice is fine, but in the
end, it’s your hard earned money. Don't get me wrong.
There is nothing wrong with listening to someone who is on
the "same side", but to just bet something blindly
because someone told you to, is crazy. Touts and "scamdicappers",
are troubling. ANYONE can get a 900 number and buy ads. This
thieves give the industry a bad name, and makes the good
guys(like Ryan Austin, who is experienced, tirelessly
handicaps, and play's his own games and is monitored by a
service. I recommend him highly as he has given me some
plays.) Unfortunately, there are more con men than honest
ones out there. They recommend a book so they get a cut.
Bottom line is they just want your money.
Also bad are Celebes or former players. Just because a guy
has a "name", doesn't mean he knows everything.
Just because you see a show on TV, surf the Internet, or
hear it on the radio or the print media, simply doesn't mean
you should run to the phone. Most of these "services"(I
will use that term loosely) are scams. They will give one
caller one side and the other another. This way they are
always in the "game". They will not even play
their own games. What does this tell you? They just want you
to call, so they can hound you with calls and sell your
number to other scammers.
Do your homework. Are they monitored? Not by their mothers,
but by an independent service. Are they rude? Do they stall,
or tell you to leave your number or call back later? Do
"bigger" plays cost more? They shouldn't. They
should cater to the biggest whale all the way down to the
smallest fish. Don't fall for the line "if this is a
loser the rest of the year is free!". I just lost a big
bet. My money is gone. Why in the world would I keep calling
you? Also keep in mind there are no "stone cold"
locks or lock parlays so be careful.
The best way to make a bet is by going to Vegas. Of course
this is not always possible or feasible. I like to go that
route. Nothing like having made a bet, having the ticket in
hand, as you watch (hopefully its on TV) the event. You then
hopefully cash in, and that’s that. Be wary of offshore
books. Ask co-workers, friends or family to recommend a good
book. Just because "Joe Blow" endorses it, doesn't
mean it’s a great book. There is nothing worse than
winning a bet, but having to wait for your money, or worse
yet, not getting paid at all. I have had this happen to me.
I only deposited about 40 bucks, but got it up to around
400. Then the book "disappeared". I was only
actually out $40, but "sweating" a game out is
priceless. The only drawback is withdrawal time like Western
Union hassles and sometimes credit card companies, or banks
not cooperating. Be careful with your "man". It is
illegal (no crying to the police or a lawyer here), not to
mention if you were to win, will you get paid?
Do not start bragging or "I told you so". You were
lucky, nothing more or less. Don't forget that time you
lost. Karma can be brutal. If by chance you do lose (which
will happen more than winning) forget about it. DO NOT
"chase" your money, by making bigger bets,
dwelling on your next bet or by wagering immediately.
Understand you lost, but remember how it felt like to win.
There will be other bets. Do not throw caution to the wind,
and bet like a mad man. You will only get further in the
hole. Take a deep breath, step away from the situation and
think. There will be other "spots". It’s not the
end of the world. Well if you made it this far, here is my
pick. I really like Vasily Jirov over James Toney. I like
betting against the public and all the money is going on
James Toney. There is value on Jirov, as this fight might be
a pick-em fight come bell time. The problem is people know
who Toney is. Unless you are an astute fight fan, Jirov is a
mystery. He is a good solid fighter, with Olympic pedigree
and a good work rate. Decent power. His chin is good, he has
never been stopped, only wobbled. He can hurt you to your
body. He is a natural Cruiserweight. His conditioning is
superb. The only problem he has looked shaky at times. That
and the fact that he hasn't fought in over a year, concerns
me. He has postponed this fight a couple of times, due to
various circumstances. He is undefeated, which plays in his
favor. He is also a Euro, which makes me nervous.
Everyone knows about "lights out". He was schooled
by Roy Jones Jr. He has lost to lesser men. He has a
tendency to be undedicated, unmotivated or just plain lazy.
He is also older and past his prime contender. I don't care
what kind of shape he is in, but I can't get the old
"Toney" out of my mind. He seems to be fit for
this fight, but he is running at the mouth. He reminds me of
Hasim Rahman before his second encounter with Lennox Lewis.
He was out of control, even going to Lewis's dressing room.
Lewis stayed cool, like Jirov. He did his talking in the
ring. I think Jirov is in the head of Toney. I don't care if
this is the "way he is". Give me the quiet dude,
anytime. Unless it is Ali!
Champs Flurries: Look for the "bald headed
bastard"(Antonio Tarver) to win as well. Lewis vs Kirk
Johnson is a good match up. I would rather see this than
Chris Byrd get brutally knocked out, or the robot Vitali
Klitschko(who hasn't fought anyone except for Byrd). Wlad is
out. So I'll watch it. I have no problem with it, as Lewis
already has his legacy. Don't worry about Mike Tyson. He
will be on board. Mike's on his time. His world. Erik
Morales is talking alot of smack. I can't wait for the
rubber match with Marco A. Barrera. It will happen. Not sure
what to make of Teddy Atlas's latest outburst. And wasn't
the Bowe-Holyfield trilogy grand?
I'm a bit concerned about the Lakers. But not into
"panic" mode. Not just yet. The series are going
pretty much as expected. KG and T-mac are bad, but Kobe is
still the man! NHL hockey is bad!!! Overtime and 7 game
series are the norm. Unlike hoops, these teams are pretty
equal. The "coolest game on ice" is exciting. No
doubt. Any doubt Carson Palmer would go #1? I still think
Byron Leftwich may be the better QB when it's all done. I
know Palmer had a great year, but I can't get the other
years at USC out of my head, when he was throwing picks.
Plus going to the Bungles? He is already jinxed, in my
opinion. Lebron James going pro? No surprises there. He will
be the #1 pick as well. I hope this kid is as good as
expected. If not, he may be the biggest bust ever.
Looks like the US has a bit egg on their face. No WMD are
uncovered (as of yet), and Saddam like Bin Ladan may still
be alive. Chemicals were NOT used when the US got within a
certain distance of Baghdad. It's a bit embarrassing, but at
least Iraq was liberated from a brutal dictator. Job well
done...
Well that’s it fight fans! Keep your hands up and keep
punching for the stars! Take JIROV this weekend!
Ron
Champ Miller ron |
